What Gives?
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First, an update:
Last year, we at Consilience Asset Management added a Macro-Economic component to our Relative Capital Flow Model*. Using market action, through a process of reverse engineering, we seek to identify which macro-economic climate is being represented in the market at any given time.
This is an important addition to our discipline as central banks across the globe are attempting to unwind decades of monetary expansion. As this unwinding occurs, it could have significant ramifications for the financial market. Thus, there is an increased need to monitor this process and the corresponding macro-economic result.
Below are the ratings of securities in the five scenarios that we are monitoring:
Inflation – Negative,
Deflation – Neutral,
Stagflation – Negative,
Recovery – Neutral,
Financial Crisis – Negative.
The above scenarios reflect the current Capital Flow* composite rating of the securities that have historically generated positive returns in the above economic environments.
In addition, our Global Macro Indicators* are as follows for the seven asset classes we invest in for our clients:
Global Equities – Negative,
Global Bonds – Negative,
Commodities – Negative,
Gold – Positive,
U.S. Dollar – Neutral,
Real Estate – Positive,
Cryptocurrencies – Neutral.
Now, to this month’s report:
Historically there has been a tight correlation between inflation and interest rates. By this I mean, when inflation rises, interest rates rise and conversely when inflation falls interest rates follow.
One important note: When we talk about interest rates, we need to distinguish between rates set by the Fed and those set by the financial markets. The latter being the most important.
Thus, in the following examples, I’ll be sighting the 3-month Treasury Bill Rate which is set by investors throughout the world as a result of their buying and selling. For example, selling will cause the value of the T-bills to decline thus raising the rate paid to new buyers. Conversely, buying will cause rates to decline as the value of the notes rise.
With this background in mind, note below the last time we had a major decline in inflation…
Rates on the 3-month T-Bills declined just as we would expect.
Now let’s fast forward to today. Again, we see a significant decline on the CPI…
However, T-Bill rates remain stubbornly high. What gives?
Is it possible that investors question the integrity of the inflation data coming from Washington?
Let me refer you to a quote from John Williams, of Shadow Government Statistics:
In 30 years as a private, consulting economist, I have noted a growing gap between government reporting of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), and the perceptions of inflation held by the general public. It has been my experience that the general public believes inflation is running well above official reporting, and that the public’s perceptions tend to mirror the inflation experience that once was reflected in the government’s CPI reporting.
The growing difference in perception versus reality primarily is due to changes made over decades as to how the CPI is calculated and defined by the government. Specifically, changes made to the definition of CPI methodologies in recent decades have reflected theoretical constructs offered by academia that have little relevance to the real-world use of the CPI by the general public. Importantly, these changes generally are not understood by the public…
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